Friday, May 13, 2011

IMEG Opinion Poll for Kerala Assembly election a resounding success

Kerala Assembly Election Results

Total Seats= 140

United Democratic Front [(UDF) won= 72 seats (Congress 38 ,Muslim League 20 Kerala Congress (M) 09 ,Socialist Janatha 2,Kerala Cogress(B ) 1, Kerala Cogress( J) 1, R.S.P(B) 1]

Left Democratic Front (LDF) won = 68 seats[ ( CPI (M ) 47,CPI 13,Jantha Dal (S) 4,NCP 2,RSP 2 ]…

IMEG Opinion Poll a resounding success

The 13 th Kerala Assembly Election results announced today-13th May.2011-totally tally with the results of Opinion Poll conducted during the last week of March and announced on 31st March ,2011 by the Institute for Monitoring Economic Growth (IMEG). Survey results revealed that the U.D.F may win 72-82 Assembly seats. The Assembly Election results show that the U.D.F got 72 seats. The Election results also disclose that the L.D.F got 68 seats perfectly tallying with the Opinion Poll results of imeg viz the LDF( Left Democratic Front) may win 58-68 seats.All the four earlier Opinion Surveys conducted by IMEG--one during the L.S by-election of Ernakulum and the second one on the L.S General Election 2004 and the third on the 2006 L.A General Election-and the forth L.S Election 2009- were also success stories and with this Election a consecutive fifth victory for the Psephology Centre of IMEG, a Research Organization based at Thiruvananthapuram..IMEG predicted marginal lead for the UDF based on 3 Survey Operations conducted simultaneously during March,2011, viz. Swing Survey, Anti incumbency Survey and an Opinion Poll using dummy ballot papers. Results of the three Surveys were pooled and arrived at the final results . Among other observations of the IMEG Opinion Poll that 1)the Bharatiya Janatha Party (BJP) has very little chance to open an account in the Kerala Assembly Elections but it will improve its position as far as the number of votes are concerned 2)The failure of some eminent political leaders and total defeat of some small parties have also become true. The anti-incumbency survey report also revealed that the anti-incumbency factor is negligible. The survey covered 59678 voters in 140 constituencies and well experienced statistical personnel captured the data. The methodology for the Opinion Poll developed in 2003 has been improved by a dedicated research team during the last five surveys. The survey operations were carried out during March by a team, led by A. Meera Sahib, Director, Prof. M. Safarulla Khan, Vice-Chairman , A.M. Joseph , Registrar, T.P. Mukundan, C. Sasi and P.Viswanathan Unni ,Senior faculty members of the Institute. Santhosh kumar , a Social Activist and media person was the observer who traveled with the Research Team to assess the survey operations. The survey results announced on 31 st March ,2011 were carried by almost all leading print, electronic media and the websites. The detailed report can be browsed in

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