ASSEMBLY ELECTION 2011-KERALA-UDF MAY WIN

Kerala Assembly Election 2011 IMEG Opinion Poll Results
Institute for Monitoring Economic Growth (I.M.E.G) - has announced the opinion
poll results, conducted in connection with the ensuing election to the Kerala Legislative
Assembly 2011, in a press conference held in the Press Club, Trivandrum today. Shri.
A.Meera Sahib, Director, of the Institute released the report in the presence of Shri.
A.M.Joseph, Registrar and Shri.T.P.Mukundan, Joint Registrar.
Survey results reveal that the United Democratic Front (U.D.F) may win the election
in 72-82 Assembly seats, while the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) may get 58-
68 Assembly seats, and the Bharathiya Janatha Party (BJP) has very little chance to
open an account in the Kerala Assembly elections,even though they may improve
their position. The survey has been conducted between March 21 and March 29,
2011 in the Assembly segments. The survey results are framed based on three
surveys- Swing survey, Anti-incumbency survey and Opinion poll. The Opinion poll has
been conducted using secret ballots in the selected wards and households selected
randomly. Altogether 59,678 people responded in three surveys. The results have
been pooled and published.

After giving due weightage and considering other factors reported by the survey
teams it is calculated that the U.D.F may win in 72-82 Assembly seats as against 58-68
Assembly seats in which the L.D.F may win.

OTHER OBSERVATIONS

There is very strong contest in 20 assembly segments.

FUNDING

The survey exercises were not funded by any agency. The faculty members,
district co-coordinators and Quality Control Supervisors of the of the Institute (IMEG )
and some volunteers participated in the survey work.

SAMPLING ERROR

It is calculated that there may be a sampling error of 1-2 % in all the three surveys

IMEG, Kerala had done four Psephology studies earlier in connection with the Lok
Sabha by - election in Ernakulam L.S Constituency during 2003, L.S Election during
2004,Assembly Election 2006 and L.S Election 2009.All the studies were success
stories and the opinion poll results tally with election results. This is the fifth edition in the series.